How TCGPredict Predicts Card Prices
We built a machine learning model that analyses what makes Pokemon cards valuable. Here's how it works at a high level.
The Approach
We Study the Fundamentals
The model looks at what actually drives card value: how hard it is to pull from packs, how popular the Pokemon is, how rare the artwork is, how old the card is. Not just what someone listed it for on TCGPlayer.
We Compare Against the Market
Every card with a market price gets a predicted fair value based on its fundamentals. When the market price is significantly below our prediction, that's a potential opportunity. When it's above, the card might be overpriced.
We Validate With Real Data
We tested the model across 3 years of real historical prices (2023-2026), covering bull, bear, and flat markets. 74% of our top picks went up over 3-month periods. That's not a simulation, those are real prices from real cards.
20,130
Cards Scored
245K+
Predictions Tested
74%
Hit Rate (Top Picks)
3 Years
Validated
Data Sources
Prices from Pokemon TCG API (updated daily)
eBay UK sold prices (real completed sales, not listings)
PSA grading data from population reports
No made-up data. Every number comes from a verified source.
What We Don't Do
We don't guarantee profits
We don't factor in card condition (the model assumes near-mint)
We don't predict short-term spikes from hype or YouTuber openings
We don't use any pricing data as an input to avoid circular logic
Real-World Returns
The model finds underpriced cards. How much you profit depends on your selling channel.
Private sales (Facebook groups, card shows)
Lowest fees, roughly 6% round-trip. Our top picks returned +11% net per quarter after costs. This is where the model's edge translates directly into profit.
eBay sales
Higher fees, roughly 22% round-trip including eBay's 12.8% final value fee. The model's edge gets eaten by fees on most cards at this level.
Holding for value
Zero transaction costs until you sell. The model identifies cards trading below fair value. You benefit when the market corrects, regardless of how you eventually sell.
Frequently Asked Questions
Ready to find undervalued cards?
Browse cards the model thinks are priced below fair value.
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